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August 7, 2008
Internet Traffic Growth Rates May Be Lower than ISPs Claim
Internet service providers love to talk about how much traffic is rapidly increasing by the year and how they'll either need to charge more or create a different business model for it. Even Time Warner is running a test in Beaumont, TX to meter internet use and charge by usage.
But the claims by cable companies and other service providers may be overblown. Researchers at the University of Minnesota have released data showing that traffic growth is actually slowing.
In spite of the widespread claims of continuing and even accelerating growth rates, Internet traffic growth appears to be decelerating. In the United States, there was a brief period of "Internet traffic doubling every 100 days" back in 1995-96, but already by 1997 growth subsided towards an approximate doubling every year CO1998, and more recently even that growth rate has declined towards 50-60% per year.
They called out Cisco (and I hate to do this since a friend works there), whose CEO said they were experiencing 100% growth, while their white papers said they were experiencing 50% growth.
The natural conclusion by ISPs has been that increased traffic means increased costs. But researchers say not so fast:
Traffic volumes are a very crude measure of the state of the Internet. Investment is driven by profits, and those have only a slight relation to traffic.
Still, the cable companies clearly want to go after internet companies like Google, who stepped on their turf by offering TV ads. They've even been collaborating on "Project Canoe," designed to create a national advertising platform as an alternative to Google.
But when it comes to the internet, innovation is almost always the route to beating the competition. The cable companies are trying to keep consumers in the past, but they won't win that game.
What do you think of this data? Are ISPs trying to pull a fast one on us? Sound off in the comments.
via Ars Technica
Related Reading:
Google to Internet, FCC, Verizon and Viacom: Keep it Open
Google - Clearwire: WiMax Paves Internet Autobahn
Posted by Nathania Johnson on August 7, 2008 10:41 AM
Comments
Freedom Avenger August 7, 2008 5:11 PM
This was bugging me on the drive home yesterday and I had to come back and clarify... the word I was looking for was "oligopoly," not "plutocracy." Although while we're at it, let's throw plutocracy in there too, because it stresses the point I was making.
Freedom Avenger August 8, 2008 11:09 AM
I think internet traffic data is actually
much lower then they suggest. The primary
reason,.. more and more people are using
pocket pc's, Cell phones, Iphones and other
handheld devices, now they allow you to surf
check e-mail and other things, but a desktop
computer will always generate more data
then a pda or cell phone. YOu get two people,
one to use a cell phone for the day and the
other to use a computer for the day, which
has generated more traffic. People love gadgets
and I do too, use my pda often and sometimes
more then a destkop machine because of my
neat little applications. See where I"m going
with this....
Lorenzo
lorenzo August 28, 2008 12:04 AM
What do you think of this data? Are ISPs trying to pull a fast one on us?
Most definitely they are. This is just a small piece of the puzzle which includes the ISPs' anti-net-neutrality stance. 80 percent of ALL THE MASS MEDIA IN AMERICA is controlled by six huge corporations (I dare not whisper their names). These companies (not surprisingly) own the major movie studios and recording companies which are so quick to demonize people for downloading illegal copies of their material, and even try to sue legitimate companies like Google for providing the technology to facilitate such downloading.
What these companies want is to restrict the free flow of information and subject the masses to an oppressive plutocracy (which, according to the definition of the word, one could say they've already achieved). And since many of our major ISPs are also owned by these corporations (ahem, TimeWarner), it stands to reason that things are going to get worse if we as consumers don't do something blatantly democratic. Which is extremely hard when the backbone of so, so many businesses is built around having access to the web.